Dropout Rates by Selected Population

In a previous post, I broke down high school graduation rates by state (see here). Here we will look out the dropout rates of selected populations in low income communities in Massachusetts.

As of 2010, the 4 year dropout rate in Massachusetts for all students was 8.2%. In looking specifically at different populations, however, we see that the dropout rate often varies and, in some cases, is much higher than MA state statistics. Below is a table indicating the 4 year cohort dropout rate for a few select populations in Massachusetts. All numbers are percentages.

	MA
Limited English Proficiency	21.5
Special Education	14.7
Low Income	15.3
African American/Black	13.8
Asian	4.9
Hispanic	20.2
White	5.4
Male	9.5
Female	6.9

From this we see that limited English proficiency, special education and Hispanic students, among others, are much more likely to drop out of high school. Hispanic students, for example, are 4 times more likely to drop out than Asian and White students, likely due in part to trouble grasping the English language.

Studies have indicated that low income students are at particularly risk for not finishing high school. Below are the high school dropout rates for 6 low income communities in Massachusetts. While 34.2% of students in MA as a whole are low-income, the percentage of low income students in these cities ranges from 72.5% to 87.1%.

	Boston	Chelsea	Holyoke	Lawrence	Lowell	Lynn
All Students	15.9	25.1	28.4	26.6	13.6	16.4
Limited English Proficiency	16.9	37.8	45.6	34.2	16.7	25.9
Special Education	24.3	35.4	42.5	39.7	34.3	31.9
Low Income	15.5	25.4	32	26.4	15.3	18
African American/Black	16.3	19.4	23.1	8.7	13.8	19.3
Asian	4.8	25	N/A	20	12.4	14
Hispanic	20.4	25.2	33.1	27.4	17.9	20.1
White	9.9	29.7	14.5	25	12.3	12.6
Male	18.5	31.5	29.5	32.9	17.9	17.9
Female	13.1	18.7	27.3	20.4	9.2	14.8

Most importantly, we see that the dropout rate for all students in these cities is much higher than what Massachusetts reports as a whole. Overall 4 year dropout rates in these communities are as high as 28.4%; also this data does not include students who may be required to complete a fifth year of high but drop out before doing so. Looking at the specific populations, it is clear that limited English proficiency students and special education students have particularly high drop out rates. Dropout rates for the special education group in these cities ranges from a quarter to nearly half of the total population. Additionally, drop out rates for Hispanic students ranges from almost 18% to 33.1%, a significant percentage give that the Hispanic population in these communities ranges from 40.1% (Boston) to 90.1% (Lawrence). In Holyoke in particular, nearly half of both special education and limited English proficiency students drop out of high school. Males are also much more likely to dropout; noticeable gender differences in dropout rates exist in Chelsea, Lawrence, and Lowell.

Even within the same city, drop out rates can vary among selected populations in different schools. Lynn, MA, a city with almost 90,000 people, has 3 high schools: Lynn English (1,739 students) and Lynn Classical  (1,401 students) are more college preparatory in focus while Lynn Tech (809 students) is a vocational school where students can learn a trade. Below are the 2010 drop out rates for these schools:

	Lynn Classical	Lynn English	Lynn Tech
All Students	10.8	9.8	27.1
Limited English Proficiency	30.6	14.9	32.6
Special Education	27.3	22	32.2
Low Income	11.1	10.3	25.2
African American/Black	12.8	14.7	33.3
Asian	2.3	10	36.8
Hispanic	16.5	10	29.8
White	8.3	8.5	19.1
Male	11.7	12.8	24.7
Female	9.8	7.1	30.7

When broken down further, one sees that Lynn's high dropout rates for certain populations may be driven by one or two schools. All three schools seem to be having difficulty keeping special education students on track to graduation; this is important because the special education populations at these schools are not insignificant with 11.2% of students at Lynn English, 13.3% of students at Lynn Classical and 23.6% of students at Lynn Tech are considered special ed. Educating special ed students is not Lynn Tech's only difficulty as the school is seeing a third of African American, Asian and Hispanic students leave school. These groups combined make up 77.8% of the Tech's total student population. Surprisingly, females are also more likely to drop out at Lynn Tech than males. 

Sadly, the current focus of education reform has centered around teacher tenure and collective bargaining, while little to no discussion around what we can do to increase graduation rates and keep minority  students from falling through the cracks This is especially important given that those how do not complete high school are increased risk for negative outcomes including poverty, unemployment, incarceration, and substance abuse (Annunziata, Hogue, Faw, & Liddle, 2006). Part of the solution may be to allow schools or school districts to come up with individualized plans for their students and their schools making interventions more specific to their needs. As we see with the city level comparisons, some cities are having issues with certain populations that another city with similar demographics may not be. Furthermore, schools within the same district may have different challenges as was indicated with the case of Lynn, MA. While debate continues around teacher effectiveness and unions, some of Massachusetts' (likely the country's) most vulnerable students are dropping out in large numbers. Instead of focusing on ways to fire people and implementing reforms with little evidence for success, politicians, reformers, and parents should be trying to find ways to help keep America's youth in school and graduate (on time).

**All data taken from: www.doe.mass.edu

Reference: 

Annunziata, D., Hogue, A., Faw, L., & Liddle, H. A. (2006). Family functioning and school success in at-risk, inner-city adolescents. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 35, 105-113.

*Part II (Coming July 22): Dropout Rates by Selected Population: Lynn: What do these dropout rates mean in terms of actual numbers for the city of Lynn?

Historical Events: The Delano Grape Strike (1965-1970)

The Delano Grape Strike, which began on September 8, 1965, was a boycott led by the United Farm Workers or UFW against California table grape growers. Working conditions for migrant workers and illegal immigrants had been poor and unsanitary since the Great Depression. Also because of the great demand for labor, farmers began to lower wages and hire more workers. A 1951 law which allowed Americans to hire Mexican workers, or braceros, added to this issue of fair wages as whole families of braceros would be paid 20 cents for three hours of work; they often lived in run down shacks or tents in crowded camps and some family members would sleep under bridges nearby if there was not enough room. This no doubt evoked a sense of anger and resentment among workers against their employers setting the foundation for the large scale strike in the mid-1960s.It initially began when the Agricultural Workers Organizing Committee, made up of  mostly Filipino farm workers in Delano, CA, demanded wages equal to the federal minimum wage for foreign workers. A week after the boycott began, the predominantly Mexican-American National Farmworkers Association led by Cesar Chavez and Dolores Huerta joined the strike; the two groups later merged forming the UFW in August 1966.

Chavez gained followers after a march to the state capitol in Sacramento inspired workers to join. in 1966. The strike would eventually spread to include over 2,000 workers in the fields.  Using a combination of consumer boycotts, marches, community organizing and nonviolent resistance, the movement gained national attention for the plight of some of the nation's lowest paid employees. During the strike, the UFW boycotted all table grapes which received wide public support; this boycott became the most successful in American history. By 1970, the UFW succeeded in getting a collective bargaining agreement with the table-grape growers which covered approximately 10,000 farm workers.
(http://library.thinkquest.org/26504/History.html)

This Day in History: July 15

 -Rembrandt, Dutch painter, is born 1606

-The Rosetta Stone is found in the Egyptian village of Rosetta by French Captain Pierre-Francois Bouchard during Napoleon's Egyptian Campaign, 1799

-Georgia becomes the last of the former Confederate states admitted to the Union, 1870

 

-In Miami, FL serial killer Andrew Phillip Cunanan guns down Gianni Versace outside his home, 1997

-Holiday: Elderly Men Day (Kiribati)

Does Charter School Attrition Matter If Test Results Are Good?

A large component of the recent education reform debate has centered around the growing number of charter schools across the country. Interest in the charter school movement seemed to intensify after President Obama's Race to the Top (RttT) legislation asked states to lift the cap on charter schools. Allowing more charter schools was in fact a criteria for 'winning' federal money for school improvements through RttT Another, likely more important factor, contributing to the focus on charter schools is the United States' most recent placement on he PISA or Program for International Assessment; the PISA is a worldwide evaluation of  students' scholastic capabilities in math, science and reading. In 2009, the United States ranked 30th in math (down from 24th in 2003),  23rd in science (down from 21st in 2006), and 17th in reading (down from 15th in 2000). As result of these rankings, politicians, educators and others began to look at improving our nation's schools with renewed urgency.

A negative consequence of this has been attacks on traditional public schools (A.K.A. the 'status quo'), school teachers, and teachers' unions who have been accused of protecting 'bad' teachers and against necessary reforms that would help students. Hatred toward teachers' union persists nationally despite the fact that there are states that do not allow unions (ex. Texas, Georgia). The focus on teachers' unions as the root of the American public school system's 'failure' has  increased the number of charter school supporters as many of these schools do not allow their teachers to unionize thereby making it easier to get rid of 'ineffective' teachers. Additionally, many charter schools  offer a longer school day and tutoring as a standard part of the curriculum. Most importantly, the most vocal education reformers are in favor of charter schools because of the (sometimes) excellent results that they produce. While Diane Ravitch, education historian, notes that on average charter schools do not do better than traditional charter schools, there are many charter schools considered 'better' schools based on the standardized tests scores that their students are able to achieve.

Massachusetts, often considered the best in terms of public education, has 63 charter schools with more set to open or expand in the coming school years. Below are the percentage of students who scored either proficient or advanced on the 2010 MCAS tests at 10 MA charter schools (percentages were combined).

	English	Math
Advanced Math & Science	94	85
Academy-Pacific Rim	74	63
Boston Collegiate	81	75
Boston Preparatory	73	69
City on a Hill	84	79
KIPP Lynn	76	55
MATCH	74	74
North Central	68	53
Phoenix	69	61
Salem Academy	78	64

Indeed a large percentage of students at these charter schools, many of whom come from minority and/or low income backgrounds, passed the MCAS test. Even more striking is how the pass rate changed over time. Below is a chart comparing the proficient/advanced rates during the students' first year at the charter school with their final year (some of these schools are middle schools, while others are high schools).

	First Year		Final Year
	English	Math	English	Math
Advanced Math & Science	92	89	98	95
Academy-Pacific Rim	52	63	97	96
Boston Collegiate	68	59	91	100
Boston Prepatory	67	75	92	100
City on a Hill	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
KIPP Lynn	37	37	83	74
MATCH	57	68	100	99
North Central	51	39	84	77
Phoenix	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Salem Academy	74	62	83	74

Again- excellent scores. Gary Rubinstein, Teach for America alum and high school math teacher, however, writes that there are "ways to fraudulently ways to improve test scores...One...is the practice by many charter schools of improving their test scores through attrition (see here here here here). Specifically, what Rubinstein is alluding to is the fact that the substantial improvement in test scores over time for charter schools may not be driven by 'better' teachers or improved curriculum. Instead, the improved test scores that some reformers tout as proof of their superiority may largely be the result of low performing students leaving the school. Thus, the charter schools' results could be deemed a facade based on the shedding of students who do not perform well.

Do the charter schools listed here see a decrease in students over time?

Below is a chart tracking student enrollment showing how many students were in each grade during the 2010-2011 school year.

	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Advanced Math & Science	0	180	266	203	114	76	62	62
Academy-Pacific Rim	75	84	83	73	50	39	47	33
Boston Collegiate	100	100	98	94	53	43	41	25
Boston Preparatory	0	50	91	69	53	46	23	14
City on a Hill	0	0	0	0	122	77	45	50
KIPP Lynn	100	100	86	84	0	0	0	0
MATCH	0	90	73	56	72	67	47	42
North Central	0	0	46	79	82	67	53	41
Phoenix	0	0	0	0	66	62	32	32
Salem Academy	0	55	56	54	51	35	30	28

Of the schools listed only one (KIPP) seems to have a set number of students for its initial class (100).Still it is apparent that for these schools, there is a substantial difference between the number of students in the earlier grades when compared to the later grades. Boston Collegiate, for example, had 100 students in the fifth grade during the 2009-10 school year but only graduated 25; the graduating class at Phoenix Charter School had about half the number of students that the 9th grade class did. 

Rubinstein makes a huge fuss about charter school attrition calling it analogous to cheating. He considers it cheating because some have pointed to charter schools' test scores as proof of their superiority over traditional public schools; these test scores, according to opponents of public school privatization, may in fact be driven by the shedding of more difficult student populations. Test result comparisons may indeed be misleading or skewed by attrition rates. The Advanced Math and Science charter school's 2010 test results, for example, included 243 students in the 6th grade class but only 60 in the 10th grade class; Boston Preparatory's results included 77 students in the 6th grade but only 26 in the 10th. Charter schools also tend to enroll smaller numbers of English language learners and students with special needs (see here) leaving some to wonder if these more difficult populations are the students leaving charter schools in large numbers over time leaving traditional public schools solely with the challenge of educating them.

At the end of the day does charter school attrition really matter if the results are excellent?

Generally speaking, maybe, but attrition in itself should not necessarily be our main priority. Students may move or may not do well academically making a choice to transfer, the parents may have decided it's not the right environment or that necessary services are not available. It is even possible that low performing  (or ELL or special needs) students do not leave at substantially higher rates that average or high performing students. On the other hand, there have been charter school students who have been asked to leave; this is certainly problematic given that it is much harder for a traditional public school to expel a student than it is for a charter school. Charter schools generally also do not admit new students after a certain grade while traditional public schools see students coming and going at any point during the year. Therefore, increased test scores may be the result of a combination of factors including the longer school days  and more stringent standards but also the departure of low performing or ELL students; it is complicated to parcel out what is what without reliable data and confirmation of the reasons for leaving by the parents/student. In the context of the current educational reform debate, however, in which schools are encouraged to compete for students, where winners (with high test scores) are rewarded and losers (with low test scores) are punished, charter school attrition among other data will continue to seriously scrutinized. Teachers and principals who are hard at work each day and understand the complexity of academic achievement are being asked to achieve 100% proficiency (i.e. perfection) and also protect their schools and students from sanctions such as school closures and private management. Thus, the search for that 'smoking gun' that explains some charter schools' success is perhaps a in part side effect of current political policies and public discontent.

So, as long as reformers such as Michelle Rhee and Bill Gates point to charter schools as the answer to the education crisis, attrition will matter. As long as conservative governors use charter school results as a reason to privatize public education and strip teachers of their collective bargaining rights, it will matter. As long as all charter schools, allowed free rein in determining who stays and who goes, are considered superior to traditional public schools regardless of their actual quality, it will matter. As long as public school teachers are attacked for not getting the same or better results, it will matter. As long we continue to move toward a two-tier system of education while racing to the top while leaving plenty of children behind, it will matter. It will matter as the bragging and boasting about test scores and graduation rates often begets those who will seek the truth about these so-called miracle schools as they often do not really exist. So regardless of where you stand in regard to charter schools, for these and many other reasons charter school attrition (regardless of what it is derived from) unequivocally does and will continue to matter.

All data taken from: www.doe.mass.edu